Question marks over the
Question marks over the future of Spain The day after Scotland voted to stay in the UK, Catalan leader Artur Mas promised to hold a similar referendum on 9 November. But despite the forward momentum, questions remain over the future of Catalonia and Spain. By: Andrew Rettman The day after Scotland voted to stay in the UK, Catalan leader Artur Mas promised to hold a similar referendum on 9 November. But despite the forward momentum, questions remain over the future of Catalonia and Spain. What happens if the Spanish constitutional court says it is illegal? Would Catalans vote Yes or No? If they vote to split from Spain in a non-binding “consultation”, so what? And what about the Basques? Answer is clear: If the Catalans vote, they are likely to say Yes to independence. Polls put the Yes at 59 percent versus 32 percent. Earlier in September, 1.8 million out of the 7.5 million Catalans marched in Barcelona chanting “indepedencia!” Catalan taxpayers are sick of their money going to poor regions in the south and want control of fiscal policy after Madrid brought Spain to near bankruptcy in 2012. They also have historical pride - their language is more widely spoken than those of 15 EU countries but has no official status. The other questions are less easy, however. Mas gave wishy-washy replies to press after the Scottish vote. He said: “If in Madrid they think that only using the legal framework they can stop the political will of the majority of Catalonian people, they are wrong”. Then he added: “Is it possible to block a referendum? Maybe”. If he defies the court, he could cause a security crisis: In 2012 some MPs in Madrid said it should prepare the 18 REGIONS & CITIES 2014
Civil Guard to go to the “rebellious region”. He would be defying some EU leaders. “The [German] chancellor ... shares the legal opinion of the Spanish government”, Angela Merkel’s spokesman said after Mas’ press briefing. He would also be defying the 45 percent of Catalans who want to respect the court. But if he tries a referendum-lite, such as snap local elections, he risks alienating the 23 percent who want the referendum no matter what. With no guarantee that all EU states would recognise Catalonia, let alone allow it into the EU or Nato, Mas was equally unclear on what happens if there is a Yes. “We would not have independence the next day. We would have to speak, to negotiate with Spanish institutions and with the EU … it’s all about negotiations, finding compromises”, he said. Meanwhile, whatever happens in Catalonia will be keenly watched by people in the Basque region in north-west Spain. The Basque region is even wealthier than Catalonia in GDP per capita and even further culturally from Spanish society. The region’s Eta group gave up armed resistance to Madrid as recently as 2011. But since then Madrid has given nothing in return. Nobody wants or expects a return to violence - when activists set fire to five busses in August they were roundly condemned. But if Catalonia is next after Scotland, then the Basques are also waiting in line: In June 150,000 of them formed a 23km human chain calling for a vote on independence. In recent polls, 59 percent said they want the chance to say Yes or No to Spain. REGIONS & CITIES 2014 19
